Want to know who’s a lock to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup this year? [Here’s] six names:
#48-Jimmie Johnson, #99-Carl Edwards, #20-Matt Kenseth, #88-Dale Earnhardt Jr., #15-Clint Bowyer and #18-Kyle Busch. Typically, by the time the Cup series leaves Darlington, it’s relatively easy to predict most of the Chase field.
Last year, 10 of the drivers in the top 12 in the standings after the Mother’s Day eve visit to the Lady in Black went on to qualify for the Chase.
The six drivers listed above are locks for two basic reasons. Number one is the point spread between Bowyer in fifth and #5-Kasey Kahne and #2-Brad Keselowski, who are tied for sixth. Bowyer has scored 349 points through 11 races, 23 more than the two drivers immediately behind him. Second, five of the top six drivers (the first five listed above) have shown the sort of consistency necessary to make the Chase with relative ease.
If Busch should fall out of the top 10 in points, he’ll make the Chase as a wild card.
Beyond those six, however, assumptions are impossible and predictions nothing short of precarious. For one thing, five of the 12 drivers who made the Chase last year — #24-Jeff Gordon, #16-Greg Biffle, #56-Martin Truex Jr., #14-Tony Stewart and #11-Denny Hamlin — are currently outside the top 10. Common sense tells you that most, if not all of the drivers in that elite group will make a move in the 15 races before the Chase field is set.
To add to the intrigue, no driver in positions 11-20 in the standings has a victory so far this year. Should that remain the case, #27-Paul Menard and Gordon (currently 11th and 12th) would win the two Wild Card Chase spots by default.
Far more likely, however, is the prospect of such drivers as Hamlin (currently tied for 26th) or Stewart (21st) winning a race or two, cracking the top 20 and grabbing a wild card spot.
